Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Preview | Odds, Tips & Value Picks

2025-05-02

The 151st Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday, 3rd May, and Churchill Downs is set to host another cracking renewal of the most iconic flat race in American horse racing.

It’s always a must-watch, but more importantly - it’s a race where sharp punters can find proper value, if they’re willing to dig a bit.

No Standout Favourite – Which Means Opportunity

There’s no American Pharoah or Justify this year. No unbeaten "monster" coming in with all the headlines. What we’ve got instead is a full field of 20 three-year-olds, some coming off strong prep wins, others quietly improving without making too much noise.

And that’s exactly where it gets interesting.

This isn’t a year to latch onto hype. The middle tier of runners - horses that haven’t quite peaked yet but are trending the right way - could be where the real betting angles are. There’s no “banker” in this field, which means better prices across the board.

Why the Kentucky Derby Rarely Goes to Plan?

This race is chaos, every year. Twenty horses, a mad early pace, a packed grandstand, and more bumping than most of these runners have ever seen.

Even the best horse in the field needs a clean trip - and how often does that happen?

It’s worth giving a second look to any horse with experience at Churchill Downs, even if they didn’t win.

Handling the track, the noise, and the occasion counts for more than people realise. Horses that can settle mid-pack and still finish strong tend to do well here.

Betting Strategy for the Kentucky Derby

Let’s be honest — backing a 7/2 shot in a 20-runner field with this much early speed is rarely a good move.

The Derby suits horses who can sit just off the front and still have something left turning in. Closers aren’t out of it, but they’ll need things to fall apart up front - and that’s never guaranteed.

When looking at form, don’t just glance at finishing positions.

Watch the replays. Who had to check at the turn? Who went four-wide and still stayed on?

These are the little things that matter on Derby Day.

Who’s the Bookies’ Favourite?

As of now, Journalism is the bookmakers’ favourite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, currently priced around 4.00. Trained by Michael McCarthy, he comes into the race on a four-race winning streak, including a big win in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s drawn post position 8 — historically one of the better gates.

Close behind are Sovereignty at 6.00 and Sandman at 7.00. Sovereignty is known for his strong finish, while Sandman turned heads with a tactical and dominant run in the Arkansas Derby.

Final Word

There’s nothing quite like the Kentucky Derby -the noise, the pressure, the unpredictability. With no standout in the market, this year feels wide open.

If you’ve got a strong read, back it. Don’t be afraid to take a swing - whether it’s an each-way punt or a bold trifecta.

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